Causal Thinking in the Twilight Zone

Judea Pearl University of California, Los Angeles Computer Science Department Los Angeles, CA, 90095-1596, USA (310) 825-3243 / [email protected] To students of causality, the writings of William Cochran provide an excellent and intriguing vantage...

A New Social Contract in the Age of Artificial Intelligence – Framework For Social Contract 2020

Version 1.0, 05/05/2020 Nazli Choucri, Michael Dukakis, Tuan Anh Nguyen, Thomas Patterson, Alex Pentland, Nghia Trong Pham, David Silbersweig   I.            A  New Social Contract in the age of Artificial Intelligence The term “artificial...

BAYESIANISM AND CAUSALITY, OR, WHY I AM ONLY A HALF-BAYESIAN

In D. Corfield and J. Williamson (Eds.) Foundations of Bayesianism, Kluwer Applied Logic Series, Kluwer Academic Publishers,Vol. 24, 19-36, 2001. TECHNICAL REPORT R-284 July 2001   JUDEA PEARL   1 INTRODUCTION I turned Bayesian in 1971, as soon...

The History of AI: Stories about Frank Ramsey

“Frank Ramsey—a philosopher, economist, and mathematician—was one of the greatest minds of the last century. Have we caught up with him yet?” By Anthony Gottlieb Professor Judea Pearl, Mentor of AIWS.net, said: “Ramsey was definitely one of...

Professor Judea Pearl and 2-year anniversary of “The Book of Why”

On May 20, 2018, “The Book of Why” by professor Judea Pearl was published. Governor Michael Dukakis said on March 20, 2020: “The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect,” provides us with the new tools needed to navigate the uncharted...

President Danilo Turk discussed about the Social Contract 2020

On May 12, 2020 at the online AIWS Roundtable, co-organized by World Leadership Alliance-Club de Madrid (WLA-CdM) and the Boston Global Forum (BGF), Former Slovanian President Danilo Turk, President of WLA-CdM, discussed the Social Contract 2020, a New...

THE SILENT HISTORY OF CAUSE AND EFFECT

Judea Pearl UCLA HPASS Los Angeles, CA Outline The Ubiquity of causal thinking in ethics and science, from ancient times to modernity. Why it kept silent till 1920. What prevented statisticians, economists, social and health scientists from answering...

Simpson’s paradox in Covid-19 case fatality rates: a mediation analysis of age-related causal effects

Julius von Kügelgen, Luigi Gresele, Bernhard Schölkopf Professor Judea Pearl wrote: “This paper is the first COVID-19 analysis I read that goes beyond data-fitting and tells society: Yes! AI can be trusted to extract meaning from data, and can do...

Club de Madrid and Boston Global Forum co-organized AIWS Roundtable to discuss the Social Contract 2020

On May 12, 2020, at 9:00 am, EST, the topic “A New Social Contract in the Age of AI: Protection of Privacy Rights in the Times of COVID-19” was discussed by former presidents, prime ministers who are members of Club de Madrid. Speaker of the Swedish...